US Restaurant Traffic Growth to Lag Population-NPD

Traffic to U.S. restaurants is expected to be up less than 1 percent a year from 2009 to 2019, while U.S. population growth is expected to be 1.1 percent a year over the same period, said NPD.

NPD expects 64.8 billion visits to U.S. restaurants in 2019, up about 8 percent from 59.8 billion in 2009. At the same time, it expects annual visits per person to fall to 191.5 in 2019 from 197.1 in 2009.

Baby Boomers -- defined as individuals born between 1946 and 1964 -- represent about a third of the U.S. adult population, and will do so through the next decade, according to demographers.

"The aging effect on the restaurant industry will be slightly negative" said Bonnie Riggs, NPD's restaurant industry analyst.

"As consumers age they become less frequent restaurant users. This means the restaurant industry will have heavier dependence on lighter buyers," Riggs said.

U.S. adults tend to spend less after they hit the age of 50 and many have been forced to pull back even more as the economic downturn and accompanying stock market and housing price drops have erased significant personal wealth.

To that end, Washington-based Employee Benefit Research Institute recently found that 47 percent of "early boomers," now 56 to 62 and nearing retirement age, are likely to exhaust their retirement savings. [ID:nN13258972]

"In addition to being hit hard by the recession, Americans are eating more suppers at home, and fewer women entering the workforce have negatively impacted restaurant industry traffic," Riggs said.

While the restaurant industry cannot do much about aging Baby Boomers and lackluster population growth, Riggs said it can help buck those trends by focusing on growth opportunities like breakfast and evening snacking.